Ukraine Conflict executive briefing

Oil prices to remain high 

Global oil and gas prices, which have risen since the onset of the military conflict, are likely to remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future as the West attempts to reduce its energy dependency on Russia.

Europe aims to reduce reliance on Russia 

The EU’s latest batch of sanctions are aimed at phasing out Russian oil imports via tankers by year end, a move which might reduce the region’s dependency on Russia. 

REVENUE PREDICTIONS 

Global oil and gas prices, which were already at its highest levels since 2014 amid crude supply constraints, have risen further since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Gas prices in Europe peaked in March and are currently on the rise in the summer due to the drought across the continent and Gazprom cutting the Nord Stream not operating at full capacity

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION 

Although supply was following contracts, gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 have come to a complete halt. Although gas storages across Europe are 80%-90% full, the threat of a complete shutdown of Russian imports will have a significant impact on industries.

CAPEX REALIGNMENT

Over $160bn worth of projects are under development in Russia. The imposition of sanctions and the subsequent exodus of foreign companies could hamper project financing in the country. In one such case, TotalEnergies has decided to stop financing all new projects in Russia.

SANCTIONS 

Sanctions directly impacting the energy sector include US sanctions on the testing and certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Australian sanctions on the sharing of equipment for use in exploration and production in the Russian Arctic and European sanctions on exports of Refinery equipment to Russia.